In this assignment you will be given a very small bayesian network, i.e. a causal net, containing just four nodes as well as truth tables for each of them. Your task will be to calculate the values of a few queries within the network using Bayes' rule.
The queries will be in the form P(A=T|B=T,C=F) where P is the joint probability function and A, B, C are variables (represented by nodes in the network) T, F represents the truth values true and false.
The query above should be read as 'what is the probability that A is true given that we have observed that B is true and C is false?'.
The given network is:
The queries wich you should calculate:
1) P(A=T|C=T,D=T)
2) P(A=T|D=F)
3) P(B=T|C=T)
4) P(B=T|A=T,C=T)
5) P(C=T|A=F,B=F,D=F)
You will report the calculated probabilities and your calculations on a paper or two and hand it in to the lab assistants during a lab/lesson.
The following Wikipedia pages are recommended reading for this assignment: