Textruta: Anders Nordgaard
 

 

 

 

 

 


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Textruta: Research
 

 

 

 

 


Current research areas:

 

 

 

Forensic statistics: Evidence evaluation, Quality assessment, Sampling

 

 

 

Food and Environment: Statistical modelling and Sampling

 

 

 

Methods:

 

 

 

Resampling, Bayesian hypothesis testing, Bayesian networks

 

 

 

Current projects:

 

 

“Improving Bayesian Network computational and modelling methods, with applications in forensics.” (VR 2012-5994)

 

“Evaluation of CBRN analyses using new statistical tools.” (MSB)

 

 

“Implementation of Nuclear Techniques to Improve Food Traceability” CRP D5.20.37. Joint FAO/IAEA Division on Nuclear Techniques in Food and Agriculture.

 

 

 

 

 

Recent contributions to conferences and meetings and invited seminars:

 

 

 

Date and place

Conference/meeting

Contribution(s)

 

Nov 14, Lund, Sweden

MiniWorkshop in Forensic Statistics, Mathematical Sciences, Lund University

Invited Talk: “Probabilistic interpretation of forensic findings as part of the full evaluation of evidence”

 

Nov 13-14, 2014, Lund, Sweden

Symposium om bevisvärdering, Faculty of Law, Lund University

Invited Talk: ”Värdering av forensiska resultat som del av bevisvärderingen” (with B. Rasmusson)

 

Oct 28-29, 2014

Seminars at School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Glasgow, and at School of Mathematics, University of Edinburgh, UK

“The Bayes factor in environmental forensic inference - with an application to ashes in dispute”

 

Oct 23-24, 2014, Tromsø, Norway

DNA.bevis og Statistikk, Universitetet i Tromsø

Invited Talk: ”Värdering och rapportering av forensiska resultat vid SKL”

 

Aug 19-22, 2014, Leiden, The Netherlands

9th International Conference on Forensic Inference and Statistics (ICFIS2014)

Contributed Talk: “The Multivariate Kernel Likelihood Ratio Method Applied on Comparison of Amphetamine Seizures” (co-authors: K. Andersson & C. Högberg)

Co-author on Keynote Talk: “Bayes Factor Evidence of a Ricin Preparation” Method (Corresp. Author and presenter: Susanne Wiklund Lindström, co-author: C. Åstot)

Contributed Posters: “Indirect Evaluation by Simulation of a Bayesian Network” (with A. Emanuelson, S. Mannerskog, U. Svensson, K. Ekberg, L. Jonasson, M. Lövby, K. Brorsson-Läthen, E. Leitet); “Interpretation of DNA Evidence: Implications of Thresholds Used in the Forensic Laboratory” (with R. Ansell & Ronny Hedell)

 

June 4-6, 2014, Riga, Latvia

Annual meeting of ENFSI SoC WG

Invited Talk: “Interpreting findings – evaluation and conclusions about what happened at the crime scene” (with G. Carlsson)

 

 

List of publications:

 

 

Publication

Journal/

Proceed./

Tech.Rep.

Peer-reviewed

 

 

 

 

 

Nordgaard A., Rasmusson B. (2014). Värdering av forensiska resultat som del i bevisvärderingen. Kriminalteknik 4, 2014. Statens Kriminaltekniska Laboratorium, Sweden.

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Nordgaard A., Wiklund Lindström S., Åstot C. (2014). Klassificering av ricin. Kriminalteknik 3, 2014. Statens Kriminaltekniska Labooratorium, Sweden

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Nordgaard A. (2014). Olika modeller för resultatvärdering – Är de olika? Kriminalteknik 2, 2014. Statens Kriminaltekniska Laboratorium, Sweden.

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Nordgaard A. (2013). I kölvattnet av RvT. Kriminalteknik 3, 2013. Statens Kriminaltekniska Laboratorium, Sweden.

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Nordgaard A: (2013). Värdering på brottsplats. Kriminalteknik 3, 2013. Statens Kriminaltekniska Laboratorium, Sweden.

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Nordgaard A., Ansell R. (2013). Statistikens roll i forensiken. Kriminalteknik 2, 2013. Statens Kriminaltekniska Laboratorium, Sweden

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Nordgaard A. (2013). Forensisk resultatvärdering – statistikämnets roll på ett

kriminaltekniskt laboratorium. Quintensen 1, 2013. Svenska Statistikfrämjandet, Sweden.

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Nordgaard A., Drotz W. (2013). Värdering av fynd på brottsplats. Kriminalteknik 1, 2013. Statens Kriminaltekniska Laboratorium, Linköping, Sweden.

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Nordgaard A., Rasmusson B. (2012). The likelihood ratio as value of evidence – more than a question of numbers. Law, Probability and Risk 11(4): 303-315. [doi:10.1093/lpr/mgs016]

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Nordgaard A., Hedell R., Ansell R. (2012). Assessment of forensic findings when alternative explanations have different likelihoods – “Blame-the-brother”-syndrome. Science and Justice 52 (4):  226-236.. [doi:10.1016/j.scijus.2011.12.001]

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Nordgaard A., Hedberg K., Widén C, Ansell R. (2012).Comments on ”The database search problem” with respect to a recent publication in Forensic Science International. Letter to the editor. Forensic Science International 217: e32-e33. [doi:10.1016/j.forsciint.2011.11.023]

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Nordgaard A., Ansell R., Drotz W., Jaeger L. (2012) Scale of conclusions for the value of evidence. Law, Probability and Risk 11(1): 1-24. [doi:10.1093/lpr/mgr020]

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Nordgaard A. (2011). Resultatvärdering med Bayesianska nätverk. Kriminalteknik 4, 2011. Statens Kriminaltekniska Laboratorium, Linköping, Sweden.

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Lundquist P., Nordgaard A. (2011). Statistisk analys av narkotikahalter i material från polisbeslag analyserade på SKL. SKL Rapport 2011:12. Statens Kriminaltekniska Laboratorium, Linköping, Sweden.

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Digréus P., Andersson A-C., Nilsson J., Dufva C., Nordgaard A., Ansell R. (2011). Contamination monitoring in the forensic DNA laboratory and a simple graphical model for unbiased EPG classification. Forensic Science International: Genetics, Supplement Series, 2011;3:e299-e300

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Hedell R., Nordgaard A., Ansell R. (2011). Discrepancies between forensic DNA databases. Forensic Science International: Genetics, Supplement Series, 2011;3:e135-e136

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Nordgaard A. (2011) SKL:s utlåtandeskala. Kriminalteknik 2,2011. Statens Kriminaltekniska Laboratorium, Linköping, Sweden.

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Nordgaard A. & Höglund T. (2011). Assessment of Approximate Likelihood Ratios from Continuous Distributions: A Case Study of Digital Camera Identification. Journal of Forensic Sciences 56(2): 390-402.

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Hedman J., Ansell R., Nordgaard A. (2010). A ranking index for quality assessment of forensic DNA profiles. BMC Research Notes 2010 3:290.

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Nordgaard A., Wistedt I., Drotz W., Elmqvist J., Höglund T., Jaeger L., Torbjörnsson M., Palmborg J., Sullivan S., Wigilius I. (2010). Uppfattning av värdeord i sakkunnigutlåtanden – En studie genomförd bland olika aktörer i rättsprocessen i Sverige. SKL Rapport 2010:01. Statens Kriminaltekniska Laboratorium, Linköping, Sweden.

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Hedman J., Nordgaard A., Dufva C., Rasmusson B., Ansell R. & Rådström P. (2010). Synergy between DNA polymerases increases polymerase chain reaction inhibitor tolerance in forensic DNA analysis. Analytical Biochemistry 405: 192-200.

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Hedman J,. Nordgaard A., Rasmusson B., Ansell R. & Rådström P. (2009). Improved forensic DNA analysis through the use of alternative DNA polymerases and statistical modeling of DNA profiles. Biotechniques 47 (5): 951-958.

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Nordgaard A. & Grimvall A. (2006). A resampling technique for estimating the power of non-parametric trend tests. Environmetrics 17: 257-267

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Nordgaard A. (2005). Quantifying experience in sample size determination for drug analysis of seized drugs. Law, Probability and Risk 4: 217-225.

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Nordgaard A. (2003) Impact of Sampling Frequency on the Power of Nonparametric Tests for Water Quality Trends. In: The Information Society and Enlargement of the European Union, part  2 (A. Gnauck, R. Heindrich, eds.). Metropolis-Verlag, Marburg.

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Libiseller C. & Nordgaard A. (2002). Variance Reduction for Trend Analysis of Hydrochemical Data in Brackish Waters. In: Environmental Communication in the Information Society, part 1 (W. Pillmann, K. Tochtermann, eds.) ISEP, Vienna.

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Nordgaard A. (1996). Computer-intensive methods for dependent observations. PhD thesis. Linköping Studies in Science and Technology. Dissertations No. 209.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nordgaard A. & Hjorth U. (1993). Statistical extrapolation of nutrient concentrations in the Baltic Sea. Environmetrics 4: 279-309.

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Nordgaard A. (1992). Resampling Stochastic Processes using a Bootstrap Approach. In: Bootstrapping and Related Techniques (K.H. Jöckel, G. Rothe, W. Sendler, eds.) Lecture notes in Econometrics and Mathematical Systems 376. SpringerVerlag, Berlin.

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Contributions to conferences and meetings and invited seminars

 

 

Date and place

Conference/meeting

Contribution(s)

 

 

 

 

 

Nov 14, Lund, Sweden

MiniWorkshop in Forensic Statistics, Mathematical Sciences, Lund University

Invited Talk: “Probabilistic interpretation of forensic findings as part of the full evaluation of evidence”

 

Nov 13-14, 2014, Lund, Sweden

Symposium om bevisvärdering, Faculty of Law, Lund University

Invited Talk: ”Värdering av forensiska resultat som del av bevisvärderingen” (with B. Rasmusson)

 

Oct 28-29, 2014

Seminars at School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Glasgow, and at School of Mathematics, University of Edinburgh, UK

“The Bayes factor in environmental forensic inference - with an application to ashes in dispute”

 

Oct 23-24, 2014, Tromsø, Norway

DNA.bevis og Statistikk, Universitetet i Tromsø

Invited Talk: ”Värdering och rapportering av forensiska resultat vid SKL”

 

Aug 19-22, 2014, Leiden, The Netherlands

9th International Conference on Forensic Inference and Statistics (ICFIS2014)

Contributed Talk: “The Multivariate Kernel Likelihood Ratio Method Applied on Comparison of Amphetamine Seizures” (co-authors: K. Andersson & C. Högberg)

Co-author on Keynote Talk: “Bayes Factor Evidence of a Ricin Preparation” Method (Corresp. Author and presenter: Susanne Wiklund Lindström, co-author: C. Åstot)

Contributed Posters: “Indirect Evaluation by Simulation of a Bayesian Network” (with A. Emanuelson, S. Mannerskog, U. Svensson, K. Ekberg, L. Jonasson, M. Lövby, K. Brorsson-Läthen, E. Leitet); “Interpretation of DNA Evidence: Implications of Thresholds Used in the Forensic Laboratory” (with R. Ansell & Ronny Hedell)

 

June 4-6, 2014, Riga, Latvia

Annual meeting of ENFSI SoC WG

Invited Talk: “Interpreting findings – evaluation and conclusions about what happened at the crime scene” (with G. Carlsson)

 

Dec 5, 2013, Oslo, Norway

Fagdag, Nasjonalt ID-senter, Oslo

Invited Talk: Grundläggande resultatvärdering

 

May 31, Lund, Sweden

Seminar at Mathematical Sciences, Lund University

“Statistical Models for Evidence Evaluation”

 

July 1-4, 2013, Krakow, Poland

FORSTAT 2013. 7th workshop on forensic evidence and statistical evaluation

Lecture: “Activity level and evaluative reports on forensic science evidence”

 

Sep 28-29, 2012, Vienna, Austria

Short course on Sampling, Joint FAO/IAEA Division on Nuclear Techniques in Food and Agriculture: Train-the-trainers workshop

Lectures and tutorials (with R. Correll)

 

Aug 20-23, 2012, The Hague, Netherlands

5th European Academy of Forensic Science Conference

Co-organiser and contributor, Mini-Workshop on “Interdisciplinary casework”

 

June 10-14, 2012, Umeå, Sweden

24th Nordic Conference in Mathematical Statistics (Nordstat 2012)

Contributed Talk: “Challenges in forensic evidence evaluation”

 

Sep 7-9, 2011, Lausanne, Switzerland

SPTM2011. Ninth annual meeting of the ENFSI marks working group

Contributed Talk: “Construction of a scale of conclusions and its use for all types of forensic evidence”

 

Aug 30 – Sep 3, 2011, Vienna, Austria

ISFG2011. 24th World Congress of the International Society for Forensic Genetics

Contributed poster: “’Blame the brother’-Assessment of forensic DNA evidence when alternative explanations have different likelihoods” (with R. Hedell and R. Ansell)

Contributed poster: “’Discrepancies between forensic DNA databases” (with R. Hedell and R. Ansell)

 

June 15-17, 2011, Krakow, Poland

FORSTAT 2011.  Fifth workshop on forensic evidence and statistical evaluation

Invited talk: Scales of reporting the value of evidence

 

Sep 8-11, 2010, Stockholm, Sweden

ESWG 2010 (English-Speaking Working Group of the International Society of Forensic Genetics)

Invited talk: "The forensic DNA profile index - a tool for comparison of electropherograms" (with J. Hedman and R. Ansell)

 

June 25, 2010, Universidad de Margarita, Venezuela

Short course on Sampling (in association with TIES2010, see below)

Lectures (with R. Correll)

 

June 21-24, 2010, Isla Margarita, Venezuela

The 21st Annual Conference of The International Environmetrics Society

Invited talk: "Change-point detection in environmental time series –A Bayesian approach" (with Du Yang)

 

Sep 8-11, 2009, Glasgow, UK

5th European Academy of Forensic Science Conference

Invited talk: "Ordinal scales of conclusions for the value of evidence" (with R. Ansell, L. Jaeger and W. Drotz)

 

Aug  20-23, 2008,

Lausanne, Switzerland

The 7th International Conference on Forensic Inference and Statistics

Contributed talk: "The use of likelihood ratios in digital camera identification" (with T. Höglund)

 

 

Feb 4, 2008, Stockholm, Sweden

Statistisk metod & analys - Skarpsynt utredning genom träffsäker datainsamling, IQPC

Invited talk: "Hållbar utveckling - aktuella statistiska utmaningar och problem i arbetet med miljöfrågor och utvecklingsövervakning"

 

Aug 22-29, 2007, Lisbon, Portugal

56th Session of The International Statistical Institute

Invited talk: "Resampling species-wise collected abundance data for flexible assessment of changes in biodiversity"

Special contributed talk: "Uncertainty in water quality data and its implications for trend detection" (with K. Wahlin and A. Grimvall)

 

June 18-22, 2006, Kalmar, Sweden

The 17th Annual Conference of The International Environmetrics Society

Invited talk: "Resampling species-wise abundance data"

 

March, 2005, Tempe AZ, USA

The 6th International Conference on Forensic Statistics

Contributed talk: "Sample-size Determination for Analysis of Ecstasy Pills"

 

Aug, 2004, Prague, Czech Republic

COMPSTAT 2004

Contributed talk: "A resampling technique for estimating the power of non-parametric trend tests"

 

Nov 2003, Johannesburg, South Africa

The 14th Annual Conference of The International Environmetrics Society

Contributed talk: "Power of non-parametric trend tests -- a semi-parametric approach"

 

Sep 2003, Cottbus, Germany

17th International Conference, Informatics for Environmental Protection

Contributed talk: "Impact of sampling frequencies on the power of nonparametric tests for water quality trends"

 

Apr 29, Umeå, Sweden

Seminar at Department of Statistics, Umeå University, Sweden

“Estimation of power in trends of water quality data”

 

June 2003, Lund, Sweden

SPRUCE VI, International conference

Contributed talk: "Impact of sampling frequency on the power of nonparametric tests for water quality trends"

 

Sep 2002, Vienna, Austria

16th International Conference, Informatics for Environmental Protection

Contributed talk: "Variance Reduction for Trend Analysis of Hydrochemical Data in Brackish Waters" (with C. Libiseller)

 

June 2002, Genova, Italy

Short course on Estimation of human impact on the environment (in association with TIES2002)

Tutorials

 

June 2002, Stockholm, Sweden

NORDSTAT 2002

Contributed talk: "Variance reduction for trend analysis" (with C. Libiseller)

 

Aug 2001, Portland OR, USA

The 12th Annual Conference of The International Environmetrics Society

Contributed talk: "Geostatistical normalisation of nutrient concentrations in marine environments" (with A. Grimvall)

 

March 2001, Lüneburg, Germany

8th International Meeting on Statistical Climatology

Contributed talk: "Simulating meteorological data by block resampling" (with Å. Forsman and A. Grimvall)

 

Sep 2000, Sheffield, UK

The 11th Annual Conference of The International Environmetrics Society (jointly with SPRUCE)

Contributed talk: "Trends in depth profiles of marine hydro-chemical data" (with A. Grimvall)

 

Aug 1995, Aarhus, Denmark

21st European Meeting of Statisticians

Contributed talk: "Resampling the empirical spectral measure"

 

Aug 1992, Helsinki, Finland

The 4th Annual Conference of The International Environmetrics Society

Contributed talk: "Statistical extrapolation of nutrient concentrations in the Baltic Sea" (with U. Hjorth)

 

June 1990, Trier, Germany

International conference on Bootstrapping and Related Techniques

Contributed talk: "Resampling Stochastic Processes using a Bootstrap Approach"